BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Ohio has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has collapsed in Ohio: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Ohio is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Ohio is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.33
20260.060.000.32
20270.050.000.31
20280.040.000.30
20290.040.000.29

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greasy Ridge619911967
South Olive520092002
Coal Run519891966
Scioto Trail420071992
Ash Ridge320211992
Rome320231968
Pike S.F.220131994
Winterset219821967
Omega220241969
Hebron220071967
Bolins Mills220101966
Pomeroy220121966
Lockport120092009
Wayne N.F.120211992
Shawnee S.F.120001992
Zaleski S.F.120241992
Tar Hollow120211993
Tick Ridge120011993
Mohican S.F.120232019
Ashley120112011
Birmingham119971988
W Carrollton120012001
Harveysburg 2120102007
Marion120092005
Enon120192016

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.