BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Mississippi has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has risen sharply in Mississippi: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.8 (95% range 6.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.8 (95% range 6.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.56.411
20278.66.411
20288.66.511
20298.76.611
20308.86.611

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace South3320192007
Delta N.F.3020211995
Vicksburg Np2820212016
Beverly2320111966
Scooba 22219871983
Water Valley2020182015
Trace Central1920252007
Holly Springs1920242009
Trace Attala1920192016
Trace Chickasaw1920252012
Trace Choctaw1820192012
Scooba1619821967
Trace Lorman1620192016
Trace Madison1620192015
Olive Branch1520011969
Duck Hill1520251968
Forest1520251972
Mt Carmel1520161974
Trace North1420182008
Amite River1320132008
Embry1220251988
Lake1120251966
Corinth1120251972
Tallahatchie1120251996
Grenada Lake1120191997

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.