BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in New Jersey has surged: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+175%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in New Jersey: up 175% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in New Jersey is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.07–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in New Jersey is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.07–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.130.060.20
20270.130.060.20
20280.130.060.21
20290.140.060.21
20300.140.070.21

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Summer Tanager in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Estell Manor320222022
Woodbury Hgt119901990
Greenwich120241979
Six Points120252022
Spraguetown 2120052005
Albion119921992
Cape May Ch120132009
Spraguetown 3120242023
Winslow120251993
New Bedford119951995
Bennett Mill 2120232023
Ramseysburg120032003
Pomona120241983

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.