BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Summer Tanager in Kentucky has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-12%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Summer Tanager in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.8 (95% range 2.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.25.3
20263.82.25.3
20273.82.25.3
20283.82.25.3
20293.82.25.3

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge2019781966
Mammoth Cave1220141995
Mammoth Cave North1020132009
Bays Fork1020191999
Joy920231966
Riverqueen820242007
Apex820242005
Bardwell 2820242006
Beattyville 2820242006
Hegira720241988
Hodgenville 2720232008
Cedar Grove620241966
Merrimac620241967
Demunbruns620211966
Staffordsvil619971996
Keysburg520241968
Bardwell520031967
Mckee520241967
Hodgenville520031967
Paintsville519951979
Brownsville420242022
Cumberlnd Gp420181966
Lovelacevile420241967
Johnsonville420211966
Kehoe 2420242005

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.