BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Summer Tanager in Kansas has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

16×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Summer Tanager Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Summer Tanager has surged in Kansas: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Summer Tanager Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Kansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Summer Tanager in Kansas is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.60–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.511.6
20271.10.541.6
20281.10.561.6
20291.10.581.6
20301.10.601.7

Summer Tanager Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Summer Tanager in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post1220252000
Wreford820241969
Grantville620221967
Dover420221967
Seneca420222017
Bucyrus420252022
Le Loup420212000
Jamestown420252001
Olathe320211968
Severance320252001
Rock Creek 2320252025
Melrose220232012
Dalton220252011
Barclay220251981
Rock Creek220211968
Pittsburg220182015
Lincolnville220242006
Longton220162000
Galesburg120252011
Humboldt120221970
Lapland120212021
Jewell 2120242012
Wellington120241990
Coldwater119751975
Ellinor120251981

Summer Tanager Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.