BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Virginia has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Virginia is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 17–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Virginia is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 17–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261834
2026261834
2027251733
2028251733
2029251733

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Clinchport8019781967
Newville6120241988
Finchley6020211994
Ft Pickett S5919951993
Newsoms5820241967
Quinby5620241966
Moran5620241996
Front Royal5520241993
Ft Pickett N5319951993
Wylliesburg5120191971
Surry5020241977
Truhart4920241996
Covington4520241966
Concord4320241967
Branchville4220241966
Church Road4120241966
Newbern3919821968
Big Meadows3920241993
Tryme3620241975
Big Island3520241968
Stickleyvill3319901975
Blacksburg3320241988
Gladys3220241994
Nat Tunnel3220241981
Brandon3220241992

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.