BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in West Virginia has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has fallen sharply in West Virginia: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181324
2026181224
2027181224
2028171123
2029171123

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sleepy Creek4819901966
Bebee4620241972
Martinsburg4220241966
Rio3819951974
Hix3620241970
Berryburg3219961975
Henderson3220232002
Shanghai3220221995
Ghent3120241978
Clendenin3120241979
Mt Storm3119751966
Stollings2720211986
Hubbardstown2620231966
Washburn2620221974
Welch2520231980
Spencer2520231986
Richwood2520241980
Valley Head2320241966
Pedro2220241979
Albright2219741966
Smoot2020241980
Nicut2020241986
Green Bank2020241977
Slate2020241980
Clear Creek1920241988

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.