BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Mississippi has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Mississippi: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 34 (95% range 26–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 34 (95% range 26–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026332540
2027332540
2028332541
2029332641
2030342641

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee10920221970
Panther Swamp Nwr7420182016
Tallahatchie6920251996
Corinth6620251972
Tippo5620251996
Olive Branch5120011966
Warren Vick5020222018
Water Valley4720182015
Delta N.F.4320211995
Lake Mary4219901974
Tupelo3920221966
Beverly3820111966
Cockrum3820241966
Dahomey Nwr3820252011
Tchula3619751970
Holly Springs3620242009
Walthall3419871970
Grenada Lake3420191997
Isola3320221968
Trace Lee3320182013
Star3220252016
Duck Hill3120251968
Mt Carmel2920161974
Macon2920251970
Neely2920121974

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.