BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Mississippi has surged: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+160%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Mississippi: up 160% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 26–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Mississippi is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 26–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025322540
2026332540
2027332541
2028332541
2029332641

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee10920221970
Panther Swamp Nwr7420182016
Tallahatchie7320241996
Corinth5620241972
Olive Branch5120011966
Warren Vick5020222018
Water Valley4720182015
Delta N.F.4320211995
Lake Mary4219901974
Dahomey Nwr4220242011
Eagle Lake4120242012
Weir4120242007
Tupelo3920221966
Beverly3820111966
Cockrum3820241966
Tippo3820241996
Tchula3619751970
Holly Springs3620242009
Walthall3419871970
Grenada Lake3420191997
Isola3320221968
Macon3320241970
Trace Lee3320182013
Benton3220241972
Trace Chickasaw3220242012

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.