BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in New York has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in New York. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.4 (95% range 4.1–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.4 (95% range 4.1–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.34.08.6
20276.44.18.7
20286.44.18.7
20296.44.18.7
20306.44.18.7

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alder Creek2620041974
Meridale1820251967
Macdougall1820251969
Kasoag1620251966
Mt Morris1420251967
Castile1320251967
Churchville1320251968
Naples1320251966
Nashville1220181967
Byron1220251968
Argyle1220241968
Highland1120221970
Cobleskill1120231966
Mcdonough1120171967
Swain1120071967
Orleans1120251967
Centerville1020151967
Mckeever1020221970
Old Forge1020061971
North Easton1020251967
Dexter Lake1019751969
S Berne 21020252014
Mt Hope920101967
S Berne920131967
Platte Cove920181968

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.