BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in New York has increased: up 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in New York. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.1–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–8.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.1–8.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.34.08.7
20266.34.08.7
20276.44.08.7
20286.44.18.7
20296.44.18.7

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alder Creek2620041974
Churchville2320241968
Philadelphia1920241980
Naples1820241966
Byron1620241968
Mt Morris1520241967
Nashville1220181967
Argyle1220241968
Highland1120221970
Cobleskill1120231966
Mcdonough1120171967
Oriskany Fls1120241967
Cayuga1120241969
Dryden1120241966
Swain1120071967
Castile1120241967
E Youngstown1120231966
S Berne 21120242014
Centerville1020151967
Mckeever1020221970
Kasoag1020241966
Old Forge1020061971
Speculator1020241969
Salem1020241967
Dexter Lake1019751969

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.