BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Missouri has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+94%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Missouri: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 36–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
36–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 43 (95% range 36–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025413448
2026423548
2027423549
2028423549
2029433649

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Palace8520242013
Rueter 28020242023
Osage Beach7620241997
New Point6820241994
Richland6720212015
Deventer6320241967
West Plains6120242014
Whitewater5920241996
Cassville5720241967
Graydon5620241967
Madison5620241971
Cp Girardeau5520241967
Clementine5520021974
Graniteville5520241982
Rueter5420222018
Cascade5320241967
Mincy5120242013
Clementine 25020072005
Lucerne5020212016
Lincoln4920242013
Syracuse4820241969
Milford4820242015
Emden4620242017
Ohio4520241972
Frazier4520241967

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.