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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Missouri has surged: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+89%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Missouri: up 89% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Missouri is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 36–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
36–4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Missouri is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 42 (95% range 36–49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026413448
2027413548
2028423549
2029423549
2030423649

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rockingham10920251969
Deventer9520251967
Hayden7220251975
Osage Beach7220251997
Rueter 27220252023
New Point6120251994
Palace6020252013
Akers5920251967
Madison5620241971
Frankford5620251985
Cassville5520251967
Clementine5520021974
Rueter5420222018
Centertown5320251973
Sweden5220251968
Cascade5220251967
Cp Girardeau5120251967
Clementine 25020072005
Syracuse4820241969
Bennett4820251994
Emden4620242017
Frazier4520241967
Graydon4320251967
Lincoln4320252013
Eugene4220252013

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.