BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in New Jersey has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New Jersey is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New Jersey is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.8–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.87.3
20265.53.87.3
20275.63.87.3
20285.63.87.3
20295.63.87.4

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown2420121991
Croton1920071970
Woodbury Hgt1620241967
Hope1519941970
Ramseysburg1320241995
Deepwater1219771969
Pedricktown 21220242013
Bloomsbury1120241969
Cape May Ch1120131992
Kemah Lake1020241971
Roosevelt1020221986
Bennett Mill 21020242016
Greenwich920241966
Villas919811979
Six Points520241978
Masonville519701966
New Bedford520151969
High Point520241977
Dover520231977
Winslow420241989
Midvale320221970
Spraguetown319971979
Mt Misery319881976
Toms River220241966
Sandbrook220241969

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.