BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Tennessee has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Tennessee is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 39 (95% range 30–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Tennessee is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 46 in 2025 to a central estimate of 39 (95% range 30–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026393048
2027393048
2028393048
2029393048
2030393048

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield12720251966
Humboldt10420251966
Big Sandy10220251966
Collinwood8520251966
Walland6619891966
Climer6120041967
Jones Gap5920191982
Moscow5820251966
Union Hill5820241967
Tibbs5620251966
Trenton5620231966
Sweetlips5320231966
Brownsville5220251966
Whiteville4820251966
Tiptonville4520251966
Silerton4520241966
Pawpaw 24420252013
Glen4320251966
Indian Mound 24320232004
Pawpaw4020121966
Bradyville3920211966
Peytonsville3620251966
Mcfarland3619931967
Corryton Rd3520191966
Wrigley3420221966

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.