BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Tennessee has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 38 (95% range 30–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
30–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 38 (95% range 30–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025393047
2026393047
2027393047
2028393047
2029383047

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield13120241966
Humboldt11020241966
Collinwood7920241966
Big Sandy6720241966
Walland6619891966
Climer6120041967
Jones Gap5920191982
Moscow5820241966
Union Hill5820241967
Trenton5620231966
Glen5420241966
Sweetlips5320231966
Pawpaw 25020232013
Tibbs4720241966
Whiteville4520241966
Silerton4520241966
Tiptonville4420231966
Indian Mound 24320232004
Brownsville4220241966
Pawpaw4020121966
Bradyville3920211966
Mcfarland3619931967
Corryton Rd3520191966
Wrigley3420221966
Trace Lewis3120172013

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.