BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in New Mexico has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-77%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has collapsed in New Mexico: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New Mexico is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.010.000.06
20230.010.000.06
20240.010.000.06
20250.010.000.06
20260.010.000.06

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valencia219921973
Red Rock220021992
Cebolla120091982
Ojo Sarco119831983
Capulin119931993
Grenville120122012
Pecos119791979
Tucumcari119751975
Claunch119941994
Cooley Lake119721972
Carrizozo119981993
Gage120092009
Angel Fire 2120182011
Cloudcroft120071990
Rodeo120212011
Counselor120012001
Angel Fire120021995
Gallinas120141994
Laborcita119921992
Bitter Lake120052005
Mesilla119961996
Hatchet Peak120092006
Columbus120162016
Sabinoso120192019
Logan119801980

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.