BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in South Carolina has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-42%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in South Carolina is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 6.5–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in South Carolina is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 6.5–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025167.124
2026166.924
2027156.824
2028156.624
2029156.524

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salem Xrd5520191982
Pendleton3019761966
Joanna2820231999
Blacksburg2720131998
Sandhills2520241994
Cauthens Xrd2420211982
Owings2320041992
Campobello2220242010
Pinewood2220191998
Carvers Bay2020121998
Nixonville1919951987
Mount Pisgah1920211998
New Holland1820241967
Little Mtn1819881966
Nixville1820211998
Boiling Spgs1719791967
Lowrys1720212017
Landrum1619921972
Rome1420241967
Bennettsville1420171998
Kingstree1320102010
Plum Branch1220241977
Whitmire1220242010
Salem1220242010
Chesnee1220151992

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.