BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Vermont has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Vermont is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.9–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Vermont is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.9–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.31.86.8
20274.31.86.8
20284.31.86.8
20294.41.96.9
20304.41.96.9

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaftsbury1520251966
East Haven1220251966
Bristol1120251995
Gaysville1020251966
Northfld Fls1020251980
Hinesburg1019941966
Greensboro920251967
North Pownal720251966
Landgrove720251966
S Wallingfrd720221966
St Johnsbury720251970
Middlesex720251968
Marlboro620251966
Stowe620241988
Newbury 2520232005
S Reading420241966
East Calais420251966
Fletcher420251971
W Rutland320251966
Hardwick220241966
Waterville219801967
Stratton120251966
Post Mills120251966
Newbury120021986
Colchester120251986

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.