BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Maine

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Maine has surged: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+307%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Maine: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Maine is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.66–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Maine is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.66–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.602.1
20271.40.612.1
20281.40.632.1
20291.40.652.1
20301.40.662.1

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harmony720251979
Newcastle520242007
Turner520101973
Bethel420211977
South Arm419991983
Brooks420211983
Greenwood320251976
Hartford320251976
Bowdoin Ctr320211979
Manchester319951974
East Troy320211981
Eastbrook320251982
Carrabassett320181991
Charleston320211981
Winn320251978
Waite319771977
Westbrook220241977
Wilson Mills219891983
Otisfield Gr220151977
Warren219851982
Freedom220192006
Hermon220211966
Hancock219851969
Moose River220011989
Cambridge220101985

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.