BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Kentucky has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 25–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 33 (95% range 25–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025352743
2026342742
2027342642
2028342641
2029332541

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil15219971996
Paintsville13019951979
Joy9920231966
Johnsonville8520211966
Boxville8519831966
Kehoe7619921966
Keysburg6420241968
Merrimac5820241967
Buena Vista5420171966
Daniel Boone5319881966
Apex5320242005
Pine Ridge5119781966
Bardwell 25020242006
Hodgenville 24820232008
Bays Fork4720191999
Cedar Grove4620241966
Hegira4620241988
Pippa Passes4519971988
Drakesboro4520031966
Morganfield4420242022
Beattyville 24420242006
Lovelacevile4220241967
Bardwell4120031967
Beattyville4120011966
Sulphur Lick4020241966

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.