BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Florida has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Florida. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Florida is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Florida is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.122.1
20261.10.082.0
20271.00.052.0
20280.990.012.0
20290.950.001.9

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miller Xrds2420191987
Blackwater2220241987
New Hope1720112009
Miccosukee1320241966
Blountstown1120241966
Lovedale1120111987
Seminole Hls1020001967
Oak Grove 21020242017
Pinetta920241987
Hildreth 2620242011
Eglin A.F.B.520111995
Betts520241987
Oak Grove420161967
Telogia419851968
Belmont420241966
Laurel Hill420242012
Hixtown Swmp420241987
Nixon419861985
Romeo319901975
Hilliard320211966
Corbett320222009
Merritt Isl320011998
Dowling Park320231987
Seminole Hills 2320222002
Mabel 2320192014

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.