BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+52%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 33–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Arkansas is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 33–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025393247
2026393247
2027403247
2028403248
2029403348

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Compton9020221967
Lockesburg8820192010
Four Lakes7420011994
Ashdown6720231967
Zion6720241967
Hughes6620231967
Yellville6420222010
Maynard6320241967
South Bend6220231967
Waldron6220241967
Marshall6020212011
Augusta 25420162002
Ravenden Springs5320152010
Farwell4820182010
Stark4620241967
Nance4320241992
Boston Mtn.4020241994
Dry Fork 24020242024
Coal Hill3920231967
Havana3820212010
Stephens3820242010
England3620242010
Princeton 23620222022
Dry Fork3520232000
Harrisburg3420191967

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.