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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+51%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Arkansas is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 33–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Arkansas is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 40 (95% range 33–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026393147
2027393247
2028403247
2029403247
2030403348

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Compton9020221967
Lockesburg8820192010
Magazine Mtn8520251993
Four Lakes7420011994
Ashdown6720231967
Marshall6020212011
South Bend5920251967
Nance5620251992
Augusta 25420162002
Yellville5320252010
Ravenden Springs5320152010
Maynard5020251967
Zion5020251967
Farwell4820182010
Dry Fork 24720252024
Stark4320251967
England4220252010
Stephens4220252010
Boston Mtn.4120251994
Coal Hill3920231967
Havana3820212010
Hughes3720251967
Centerton3620252010
Princeton 23620222022
Dry Fork3520232000

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.