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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in North Carolina has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in North Carolina is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in North Carolina is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 13–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026251337
2027251337
2028251337
2029251337
2030251336

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jackson6620171995
Rhems4619931990
Shallotte4319911966
Dortches4220251990
Pinetops4120241997
Beargrass4019811966
Rheasville4020172005
Washington4020252001
Kinston3820241966
Bullock3820251997
Grandy3719751971
Eden3720251987
Speed3420251966
Osmond3420252001
Cherryville3319681966
Madison3319851966
Copeland3320251968
Sturgills3320252001
Andrews3319981994
Fairmont3219811968
Siloam3220252005
Mooresville3020011966
Craven Gap3019751969
Dudley3020252002
Goldston2920222001

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.