BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in North Carolina has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in North Carolina is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 13–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in North Carolina is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 13–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261437
2026261437
2027251437
2028251337
2029251337

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jackson6620171995
Rhems4619931990
Shallotte4319911966
Pinetops4120241997
Beargrass4019811966
Rheasville4020172005
Kinston3820241966
Eden3820241987
Speed3720241966
Grandy3719751971
Dortches3720241990
Siloam3720242005
Cherryville3319681966
Madison3319851966
Andrews3319981994
Fairmont3219811968
Oakboro3220241969
Biscoe3220171990
Dudley3220242002
Monticello3120241990
Mount Airy3120242000
Osmond3120242001
Mooresville3020011966
Craven Gap3019751969
Bullock3020241997

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.