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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Massachusetts has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Massachusetts: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.74.1
20272.91.74.1
20282.91.74.2
20293.01.84.2
20303.01.84.2

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chesterfield1120251969
Belchertown1020251967
Pittsfield1020161969
Monterey820252019
N Orange720251968
S Barre620251968
Cummington 2520252015
Cummington420141968
Sheffield420221969
Warren 2420242010
Newburyport320001967
E Pepperell319941966
Cheshire319941969
Littleton220231967
Princeton219751969
Warren220091968
Ware River220221993
Holden220251978
Hancock220151997
E Dennis120131982
Chilmark119831983
Marion120181975
Wellfleet119901966
Prattville120191973
Brockton120111975

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.