BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Minnesota has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Minnesota is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.61–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Minnesota is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.61–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.693.6
20262.10.673.6
20272.10.653.5
20282.10.633.5
20292.10.613.5

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatfield 22320242003
Caledonia 22320242013
Wigwam Bay1820231967
Whitewater1820001994
Brook Park1720241998
Knapp1520241967
St Stephen1520161967
Evergreen1520241967
Minnetonka1420241969
Mille Lacs1420241968
Debs1320241969
Sherburne Nr1220241990
Oklee1120211969
Brainerd1120241993
Glendale1020232004
Austin720231993
Le Center720231993
New London720241995
Chatfield619991967
Princeton620241969
Caledonia520121993
Millville420191967
Osseo420241968
Beltrami420241967
Le Roy420242000

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.