BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Minnesota is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.61–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Minnesota is projected to fall about 60% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.61–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.674.1
20272.40.654.1
20282.40.644.1
20292.30.634.1
20302.30.614.0

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Millville4620251967
Caledonia 23020252013
St Stephen2920251967
Chatfield 22220252003
Knapp2120251967
Minnetonka1920251969
Wigwam Bay1820231967
Whitewater1820001994
Debs1620251969
Brook Park1620251998
Mille Lacs1420241968
Osseo1220251968
Evergreen1120251967
Oklee1120211969
Brainerd1120241993
Princeton1020251969
Glendale1020232004
Sherburne Nr1020251990
Le Roy920252000
Lakeville720251969
Austin720231993
New London720241995
Nebish720251982
Chatfield619991967
Caledonia520121993

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.