BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in New Hampshire has surged: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+150%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in New Hampshire: up 150% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.4–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.73.26.3
20274.83.26.4
20284.83.36.4
20294.93.36.5
20305.03.46.5

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen1320251975
Canterbury820251966
Gilmantn I W720251970
Jefferson Hl520251966
Milan520251966
Dixville Notch 2520252018
Walpole420251966
Marlow420251966
Franconia420251966
Stratford420251966
Wilmot320251970
Mt Chocorua320251966
Clarksville320231973
Peterborough220251966
Brentwood219981966
Fitzwilliam220251968
Concord220251966
Lempster220251977
Dixvil Notch220161967
Dover120231966
Hopkinton120241966
Epsom120251968
Strafford120251966
Crawford Not119751967
East Kingston120231999

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.