BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in North Dakota has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in North Dakota is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in North Dakota is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.40
20260.140.000.40
20270.140.000.40
20280.140.000.40
20290.140.000.40

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horsehead Lk2219971997
Emerado820241973
Abercrombie420121967
Stanley220141970
Solen220122007
Forman120162007
Walcott120211968
Kempton120001969
Cooperstown120081971
Bowesmont120131970
Nash120131990
Lakota119991970
Regan120172017
Dunn Center120162016
Carpio119721969
Zap119901990
Roosevelt Pk119841984
Turtle Mtns119921981
Abercrombie 2120182013

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.