BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Rhode Island has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+186%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Rhode Island: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 295% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.54–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+295%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 295% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.54–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.395.2
20272.90.425.3
20282.90.465.3
20292.90.505.4
20303.00.545.4

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casimir Pulaski Sf620182016
Quonset Pt420241966
Shannock220251973
Sachuest Pt119741966
Wallum Lake120251974

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.