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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Louisiana has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+159%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Louisiana: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Louisiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10.0–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10.0–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Louisiana is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 10.0–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026159.621
2027159.721
2028159.821
2029159.921
20301610.021

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Frogmore5820251998
Mayflower5520251967
Tensas Nwr5320251987
Transylvania5020251998
Shaw4820241967
Many4619921989
Carterville4019921992
Hargis3920112005
Rayville 23720252009
Atchafalaya3720251989
Evelyn3520242004
Linville3420251998
Ivan 23320252014
Flat Creek3220251998
Enterprise3120252006
Marion3019961988
Mount Union2820251998
Ivan2820131998
Fort Jessup2720231998
Longstreet2620251967
Trout2620251988
Concord2520192006
Hargis 22420142013
Zwolle2320231998
Grayson2320212005

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.