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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Louisiana has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+149%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Louisiana: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Louisiana is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Louisiana is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.320
2026159.420
2027159.521
2028159.621
2029159.721

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tensas Nwr6020241987
Frogmore5420241998
Shaw4820241967
Many4619921989
Mayflower4420241967
Ivan 24320162014
Carterville4019921992
Womack3920241999
Hargis3920112005
Transylvania3520221998
Evelyn3520242004
Linville3420241998
Natchez3320241992
Goodwill3320242004
Mount Union3220241998
Clay3120241968
Enterprise3120242006
Marion3019961988
Rayville 23020242009
Trout2920241988
Derry 22820241990
Ivan2820131998
Fort Jessup2720231998
Flat Creek2520241998
Concord2520192006

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.