BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Kansas has surged: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+395%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Kansas: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.4–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Kansas is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.4–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.7%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.615
2026128.815
2027129.015
2028129.215
2029129.416

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post6820242000
Melrose5020231967
Dover3620221967
Pittsburg3420212000
Olathe3220211967
Galesburg3020241967
Wreford2920241967
Rock Creek 22920242022
Dalton2820241968
Grantville2820221967
Bucyrus2820242022
Reece2820242000
Olsburg2720242000
Morehead2520242000
Seneca2420221967
Le Loup2320212000
Humboldt2220221968
Rock Creek2120211968
Lincolnville2120242002
Severance1820242000
Wellington1720241968
Buckeye1420231967
Ellinor1320241967
Barclay1120241967
Longton1120211976

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.