BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Kansas has surged: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+410%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Kansas: up 409% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 9.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 13 (95% range 9.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026128.915
2027129.115
2028129.316
2029139.516
2030139.716

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading Post7120252000
Melrose5020231967
Dover3620221967
Pittsburg3420212000
Dalton3220251968
Olathe3220211967
Galesburg3020251967
Wreford2920241967
Reece2920252000
Grantville2820221967
Olsburg2820252000
Rock Creek 22620252022
Seneca2420221967
Le Loup2320212000
Humboldt2220221968
Wellington2220251968
Rock Creek2120211968
Lincolnville2120242002
Morehead2020252000
Barclay1920251967
Bucyrus1920252022
Ellinor1820251967
Buckeye1420231967
Severance1320252000
Longton1120211976

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.