BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Maryland has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Maryland is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 26–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Maryland is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 26–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025312537
2026312537
2027312537
2028312538
2029322638

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cokesbury9320241966
Madonna9120222009
Harmony5620171966
La Plata4920091966
Smithsburg4520141966
Newark4520241966
Pt Republic4419891966
Earlton4320242014
Grove Neck4119961992
Mardela4020191966
Finzel3820241995
Ijamsville3820241986
Hughesville3720241966
Easton3720211966
Honga3720241966
Williamsport3620241966
Sinepuxent3619781966
Millington3420241966
Emmitsburg3320241966
Forest Grove3320232011
Island Creek3320241991
Piney Neck3220241966
Davidsnville3220241982
Bald Friar3119961992
Olney3020241966

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.