BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Maryland has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Maryland is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 25–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
25–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Maryland is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 31 (95% range 25–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026312537
2027312537
2028312537
2029312537
2030312538

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Madonna9120222009
Cokesbury7620251966
Harmony5620171966
La Plata4920091966
Newark4820251966
Ijamsville4820251986
Finzel4720251995
Smithsburg4520141966
Pt Republic4419891966
Earlton4320242014
Hughesville4120251966
Grove Neck4119961992
Melitota4020251966
Honga4020251966
Mardela4020191966
Jennings3920251995
Oldtown3620251970
Williamsport3620251966
Sinepuxent3619781966
Emmitsburg3520251966
Pomonkey3520251966
Piney Grove3420251995
Olney3320251966
Forest Grove3320232011
Bald Friar3119961992

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.