BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Nebraska has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Nebraska: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Nebraska is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.01–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Nebraska is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.01–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.042.3
20261.20.032.3
20271.20.032.3
20281.10.022.3
20291.10.012.3

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Humboldt1420242018
Johnson820241967
Liberty720031967
Julian620241969
Midway620231967
Ponca620242019
Red Cloud520242018
Murdock520242018
Gretna420181969
Thurston420241967
Brady420241997
Hampton420242018
Winside 2420222006
Belvidere320241971
Kenesaw320221977
Holbrook320241970
Surprise320221967
Swan Lake320141983
Madison320192019
Liberty 3320242009
Gretna 2320242022
Seward220231968
Kearney220241978
Bartley220241988
Irvington220231967

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.