BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.7–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025159.620
2026159.620
2027159.620
2028159.620
2029159.720

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Needmore5319911966
Stoneybreak4520241992
Roulette3420211970
Doubling Gap2719771966
Peters Mt2719941972
West Grove2719961966
Waterstreet2620241968
Gatchelville2619901972
Harmonsburg2420231966
Ferris Crnrs2420241966
Carsonville2420231966
Logue2320231970
Geeseytown2320241987
St College2320241969
Labott2319831966
Schaefferstown 22320242002
Ridgway2220181966
Rector2219771966
Pine Gr Mill2220241967
Roulette 22220242022
Ryde2120051968
Naginey2120241970
Mifflintown2120241966
Mt Gretna 22120222001
N Washington1920241967

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.