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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.3–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 9.3–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026159.220
2027159.220
2028159.320
2029159.320
2030159.320

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Needmore5319911966
Stoneybreak5320251992
Pine Gr Mill4020251967
Roulette3420211970
Doubling Gap2719771966
Peters Mt2719941972
West Grove2719961966
Waterstreet2620241968
Gatchelville2619901972
Ferris Crnrs2520251966
Carsonville2420231966
Elizabethvil2420251995
Labott2319831966
Ridgway2220181966
Rector2219771966
Geeseytown2220251987
Warrens Mill2220251971
Berwick2220251985
Ramsey2120251968
Waller2120251971
Ryde2120051968
St College2120251969
Mt Gretna 22120222001
Millville2020251974
Naginey2020251970

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.