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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Oklahoma: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 15–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201525
2027201525
2028201525
2029201525
2030201525

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodwater10120211992
Pushmataha9020231994
Blanco8520161967
Hee Mountain6420241999
Holdenville5820251967
Ouachita Nf5020251991
Pocola5020161992
Heyburn4620251992
Colcord4620221992
Mill Creek4020251967
Baron3920231967
Bethel3720251993
Keetonville3020221992
Beggs2920231967
Sandbluff2920251992
Mt. Herman2320221998
Ardmore2220251967
Indianola2220251967
Tatums2220251993
Wainwright2220131992
Choctaw2120231967
Phillips2020251968
Noble1920251967
Peoria1820231967
Matoy1820251992

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.