BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Oklahoma: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 16–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 60% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 16–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201525
2026201525
2027201525
2028201525
2029201625

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goodwater10120211992
Pushmataha9020231994
Blanco8520161967
Hee Mountain6420241999
Pocola5020161992
Colcord4620221992
Holdenville4520241967
Bethel4520241993
Heyburn4120241992
Baron3920231967
Ouachita Nf3920241991
Keetonville3020221992
Beggs2920231967
Sandbluff2319951992
Mt. Herman2320221998
Tatums2220241993
Wainwright2220131992
Choctaw2120231967
Noble2020241967
Peoria1820231967
Big Cedar1720241967
Phillips1720081968
Matoy1720001992
Mcalester1619911967
Indianola1620241967

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.