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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Texas has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Texas: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.2–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.2–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyrna4520101995
Liberty Hill3920251968
Lydia3820251967
Smyrna 23620252011
Easton 22920252014
Weches2820251995
Diboll2520251968
New Waverly2120251969
Caledonia2120251969
Morton2120251970
Alexander St1920251995
Powell Park 21820252022
Crossroads1720251967
Mt. Selman1720251998
Gambill Ref.1620251995
Dike1420251969
Powell Park1420211995
Easton1420131994
Prairie Mtn.1220252001
Greenville1220251999
Adamsville1120251976
Athens1120251968
Massey Lake1020251970
Sadler1020251969
Blue Ridge1020251988

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.