BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Texas has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Indigo Bunting Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Texas. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Texas is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.13.0
20262.01.13.0
20272.01.13.0
20282.01.13.0
20292.01.13.0

Indigo Bunting Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weches4520241995
Smyrna4520101995
Crossroads3720241967
Lydia3720231967
Caledonia3620241969
Diboll3420241968
Mt. Selman3320241998
Easton 23320242014
New Waverly2920241969
Liberty Hill2420231968
Smyrna 22320232011
Morton1820241970
Alexander St1820241995
Gambill Ref.1820241995
Powell Park 21520242022
Fred1420241995
Powell Park1420211995
Easton1420131994
Cayuga1320242002
Greenville1220241999
Chandler 2920242005
Big Sandy Bith920242015
Dike820241969
Blue Ridge720241988
Union Hill720241997

Indigo Bunting Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.