BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Virginia has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Virginia. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Virginia is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026137.718
2027137.818
2028137.919
2029138.019
2030138.119

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural Retrt6420251982
Nat Tunnel5520251981
Blacksburg4820251988
Tryme4420251975
Saltville4420251969
Putnam3220251969
Hebron 23120252023
Taylorstown3020101967
New Market3020251992
Port Royal2920251977
Amherst2920251967
Finchley2920211995
Front Royal2820251993
Concord2720241967
Churchville2620251966
Natural Brid2520251974
Marion2419821976
Covington2320251966
White Stone2320251966
Shenandoa Np2120251993
Truhart2120241996
Big Island2020251968
Ringgold1920251976
Brandy Station1920252017
Walkers1920231992

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.