BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Virginia has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Virginia. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Virginia is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.8–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Virginia is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.8–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025137.418
2026137.518
2027137.618
2028137.718
2029137.818

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rural Retrt7620241982
Tryme6420241975
Nat Tunnel5120241981
Hall4620231967
Blacksburg4620241988
Shipman3920241969
White Stone3920241966
New Market3920241992
Natural Brid3820241974
Covington3520241966
Front Royal3320241993
Star Tannery3220241977
Taylorstown3020101967
Finchley2920211995
Hebron 22920242023
Concord2720241967
Amherst2420241967
Marion2419821976
Stanley2320241966
Brodnax2320241973
Saltville2220241969
Brandy Station2120242017
Truhart2120241996
W Augusta2020241967
Walkers1920231992

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.