BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-60%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New Mexico is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.10
20270.020.000.10
20280.020.000.10
20290.020.000.10
20300.020.000.10

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording American Goldfinch in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxwell619971997
Horse Mtn319731973
Angel Fire 2320252008
Laborcita219951995
Emory Pass219941994
Angel Fire219981992
Dulce220122012
Cebolla119981998
Ojo Sarco120232008
Wagon Mound119761976
Gallinas120191997

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.