BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Kentucky has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Kentucky is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Kentucky is projected to rise about 62% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.216
2027116.216
2028116.316
2029116.316
2030116.316

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3819971996
Paintsville3119951979
Cumberlnd Gp3020181966
Levee2719821966
Goshen2619991966
Buena Vista2120171966
Pippa Passes2019971988
Merrimac2020241967
Beattyville1820011966
Bays Fork1820191999
Million1719861966
Plum1620251966
East Union1620251966
Kings Mtn1520251966
Phelps1519971979
Levee 21420192007
Iron Bridge1319981966
Eastview1320251967
Gesling1319731967
Kehoe1219921966
Sunnybrook1120221968
Beattyville 21120242006
Cedar Grove1020251966
Riverqueen1020252007
Shiloh920251967

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.