BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+65%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 65% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.1 (95% range 1.1–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.02.9
20272.01.03.0
20282.01.13.0
20292.11.13.0
20302.11.13.0

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell3020182010
Compton2220221967
Magazine Mtn1220251993
Ozark Nf920251991
Marshall820212011
Dell720152010
Boston Mtn.720251995
Rudy620252011
Maynard520241996
Ashdown420072007
Harrisburg420121974
Avoca420241967
Yellville420252010
Dry Fork 2420252025
Hatfield 2320232017
Blakely319981968
Waldron320231983
Stark320251967
Centerton320252010
Havana320212011
Sims320252011
Old Milo219961991
Hughes220251973
Saffell220131967
Lurton220231969

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.