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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Michigan has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Michigan. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Michigan is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Michigan is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 4.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026125.219
2027125.119
2028125.119
2029125.019
2030124.919

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Run6219991994
Mayfield4120252000
Pleasant Valley 23820252004
Cunard3120211973
Tyre3119961967
Hartland3020111992
Walloon Lake2720041977
Wilson2420101966
Holt2420251969
Almena2320151993
Belding 22220252004
Ontonagon2120191967
Cohoctah2120252021
North Branch2019991974
S Lyons2019921966
Herron2020162011
Belding1920031983
Drayton Plns1919871973
Waldenburg1920171968
Pleasant Val1819971967
Riggsville1820191967
Hungerford1820251991
Walloon Lake 21820242005
Howardsville1720251969
Beaver Lake1720111967

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.