BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Michigan has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Michigan: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Michigan is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Michigan is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 9.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.1–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025125.419
2026125.419
2027125.319
2028125.219
2029125.119

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Run6219991994
Pleasant Valley 24320242004
Cunard3120211973
Tyre3119961967
Hartland3020111992
Howardsville2720241969
Walloon Lake2720041977
Wilson2420101966
Almena2320151993
Ontonagon2120191967
Mottville2120241967
Pickford2120241973
No Bradley2020241970
North Branch2019991974
S Lyons2019921966
Herron2020162011
Mayfield2020222000
Belding1920031983
Drayton Plns1919871973
Waldenburg1920171968
Pleasant Val1819971967
Riggsville1820191967
Cohoctah1820242021
Walloon Lake 21820242005
Beaver Lake1720111967

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.