BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Mississippi has surged: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+124%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Mississippi: up 124% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Mississippi is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Mississippi is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.54
20260.230.000.54
20270.230.000.54
20280.230.000.54
20290.230.000.54

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tippo320071998
Corinth320241973
Aberdeen320192004
Okatibbee L.220072007
Olive Branch220011984
Walthall219871978
Trace Chickasaw220232012
Trace Lee220142014
Tupelo220141968
Embry220162013
Dundee120041979
Commerce119921966
Tallahatchie120122012
Grenada Lake120181997
Cockrum120241975
Duck Hill120192011
Lake120082007
Oak Ridge Vick120162016
Macon120012001
Scooba119801980
Duffee119741974
Weir120222022
Water Valley120182015
Shelby120242019
Holly Springs120242009

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.