BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Minnesota has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Minnesota is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Minnesota is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026149.719
2027159.819
20281510.019
2029151019
2030151020

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee4620211969
Greenbush4320251994
Whitewater4220001994
Knapp4120251967
Le Roy3620251993
Minnetonka3520251969
Sherburne Nr2920251990
Chandler2520251969
Fairmont2520251993
Debs2420251969
Lude2320251978
Millville2220251967
Edwards2220241973
Waskish2220251978
Warroad2220251994
Caledonia 22220252013
Big Stone2220121995
Backus2120251967
Tenney1820161978
Frontenac1820241993
Brainerd1820241993
Red Lake1820251993
Beltrami1720251967
Austin1720231993
Brook Park1720251998

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.