BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Minnesota has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025149.819
2026159.919
20271510.019
2028151019
2029151020

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oklee4620211969
Whitewater4220001994
Osseo3920241967
St Stephen3920161967
Beltrami3820241967
Minnetonka3220241969
Debs2920241969
Chatfield 22820242003
Greenbush2520241994
Sherburne Nr2420241990
Edwards2220241973
Brook Park2220241998
Big Stone2220121995
Appleton2020241978
Tenney1820161978
Frontenac1820241993
Brainerd1820241993
Caledonia 21820242013
Millville1720191967
Austin1720231993
Glenwood1720191993
Wylie1520241969
New London1520241994
Knapp1420241967
Chokio1420241969

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.