BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Tennessee is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.8–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Tennessee is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 8.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025105.415
2026105.515
2027105.615
2028105.715
2029115.815

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Climer3620041967
Walland3219891966
Collinwood3120241966
Peytonsville2920241966
Mansfield2620241966
Corryton Rd2220191968
Mt Olive1720241966
Jones Gap1720191982
Petersburg1620191966
Indian Mound1519981966
Lovell1520191966
Campbellsville1420191966
Bradyville1320211967
Allens Brdge1120231968
Big Sandy1020241966
Signal Mtn920241979
Pond Creek920241966
Jefferson Cty920111966
Fish Springs920231966
Mecca920231994
Belotes Bend820181966
Smokey Jct820221966
Wrigley720221966
Trace Lewis720172013
Tiptonville620231966

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.