BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-59%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.13–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.13–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.406.9
20263.60.336.9
20273.50.266.8
20283.50.206.7
20293.40.136.7

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Adair5020241971
Svensen4119921990
Dayton3220241973
Mt Hood2820241972
Salem2720241993
Modoc Point2120181970
Garfield2020231973
Scappoose1720231995
Coquille1620241994
Canby1520241993
Modoc Point 21420242024
Mcminnville1220241994
Green1120241994
Sandy River1120061993
Elkton920241972
Umatilla920231990
Winberry820231968
Scio820241971
Hauser719851970
Umpqua720241968
Hazel Camp620221975
Hells Canyon620221995
Santiam620241994
Pendleton520241978
Silver Creek519901990

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.