BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-61%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 0.05–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oregon is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 0.05–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.60.326.8
20273.50.266.7
20283.40.196.7
20293.40.126.6
20303.30.056.5

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dayton4320251973
Svensen4119921990
Modoc Point 22920252024
Mt Hood2820251972
Salem2520251993
Scappoose2420251995
Modoc Point2120181970
Garfield2120251973
Scio1820251971
Adair1720251971
Canby1520251993
Mcminnville1220251994
Nicolai Mtn.1120251993
Sandy River1120061993
Elkton1020251972
Umpqua920251968
Umatilla920231990
Winberry820231968
Tualatin720251968
Hauser719851970
Glasgow720251986
Coquille720251994
Hazel Camp620221975
Hells Canyon620221995
Green620251994

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.