BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in North Carolina has surged: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+276%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in North Carolina: up 276% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Carolina is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.0–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Carolina is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 6.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 6.0–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.35.511
20268.45.711
20278.55.811
20288.75.911
20298.86.012

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording American Goldfinch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Speed3520241968
Sturgills3520242001
Monticello2820241990
Brevard2420241968
Eden2020241987
Climax1820241968
Mooresville1820011968
Bullock1620241997
Call1420241968
Osmond1420242001
Ostwalt1420242012
Linville1320241976
California 21320242014
Todd1320231995
Jackson1320171995
French Broad River1320242001
South. Pines1219951995
Marshall1220241990
Siloam1220242005
California1120131975
Wilgrove1120241995
Rheasville1120172005
Cherryville1019681966
Youngsville920241967
Oteen920241976

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.