BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in North Carolina has surged: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+294%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in North Carolina: up 294% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Carolina is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 6.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Carolina is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 7.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 6.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.45.611
20278.55.711
20288.65.811
20298.75.911
20308.86.112

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording American Goldfinch in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sturgills5320252001
Climax3220251968
Sheffield2320251991
Monticello2320251990
Cullowhee2120251974
Jordan1820251967
Mooresville1820011968
Wilgrove1720251995
Biscoe1620251990
Marshall1420251990
Todd1320251995
Jackson1320171995
South. Pines1219951995
Siloam1220252005
Speed1120251968
California1120131975
Eden1120251987
Dortches1120251990
Rheasville1120172005
Cherryville1019681966
California 21020252014
Gupton1020252001
Oteen920241976
Craven Gap819751969
Copeland820251968

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.