BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Massachusetts has surged: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+233%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Massachusetts: up 232% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221529
2026221529
2027231630
2028231630
2029231630

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton6920191967
Maynard4620221967
Wellfleet4020071966
Marion3320241966
Wellfleet 23020242016
Belchertown2820241967
Cape Cod Ns2820071989
Holden2520241977
Newburyport2320221967
S Barre2320241968
Chesterfield2220241967
Mansfield2120241968
E Pepperell1919941966
Sheffield1620221969
N Orange1520241968
Monterey1220242019
N. Andover1220241995
Warren 21220242010
Warren1120091968
Pittsfield1020161967
Chilmark919831969
Hancock920151997
E Dennis620211967
Prattville620191967
Littleton620241967

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.