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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Massachusetts has surged: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+245%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Massachusetts: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221529
2027231530
2028231630
2029231630
2030231630

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton6920191967
Belchertown5720251967
Maynard4420251967
Wellfleet 24420252016
Wellfleet4020071966
Cape Cod Ns2820071989
Mansfield2420251968
Newburyport2320221967
Marion2020251966
E Pepperell1919941966
N Oxford1720251968
Sheffield1620221969
Littleton1520251967
S Barre1420251968
Chesterfield1420251967
N. Andover1320251995
Holden1220251977
Warren1120091968
N Orange1120251968
Pittsfield1020161967
Monterey1020252019
Chilmark919831969
Warren 2920252010
Hancock920151997
Gay Head820251996

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.