BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in Ohio has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+7%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in Ohio. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Ohio is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Ohio is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026181223
2027181223
2028181223
2029181223
2030181223

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harveysburg4919961966
Garrettsvile4419911966
Smithfield4120251966
Lucerne4020251992
Wilmington4019961966
Marion3420231966
Kalida3320251966
Rome3220251966
Bismark3119951967
Newport3119941966
Ash Ridge2920211992
Birmingham2920241988
Dell2720191993
Lockport2620251966
Kenton2620251966
Kingsway2520251966
Omega2520241966
Stonecreek2520251996
Bloomville2420251992
Ashley2420181988
Pittsfield2320241992
Vickery2320251996
West Elkton2220121992
Dunlap2219881966
Valley City2220251995

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.