BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Delaware has surged: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+142%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in Delaware: up 142% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Delaware is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Delaware is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 11–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025169.622
2026169.822
2027161023
2028171023
2029171123

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milton2620161966
Wilmington2320141966
Georgetown2120221992
Harrington1820241966
Frederica1820141966
Holleyville1520041966
Pepperbox 21320242017
Milton 21220172017
Pepperbox1020161998
Frankford920121966
Millsboro920242017
Blackbird820241994
Mt Pleasant720191966
Holleyville 2720242006
Dover319871966
Bethany Bch219901966
Lowes Xrds119871966

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.