BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in South Dakota has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 1.7–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 1.7–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.81.75.9
20263.81.75.9
20273.81.75.9
20283.81.76.0
20293.91.76.0

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording American Goldfinch in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chamberlain1820111968
Lane 21720142000
Ft Thompson1620111967
Lane1519991967
Wind Cave Np1520241999
Volga1420241967
Wilmot1420241967
White Lake1220111967
Howard1020241970
Forbes1020241967
Cottonwood919951994
Lennox820241967
Geddes820211967
Rosebud820111967
Tripp620241967
Promise620151971
Roswell420141967
Gorman420101980
Marcus420121999
Conde319841967
Long Lake320191969
Roubaix Lk319911968
Volunteer320151972
Lodgepole320241990
Isabel320151990

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.