BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Dakota is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Dakota is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 8.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.0–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026126.717
2027126.817
2028126.817
2029126.917
2030127.017

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Goldfinch in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stanley2820251967
Loraine2720191982
Abercrombie2220121967
Cooperstown2120251969
Buchanan2120251967
Regan2020251968
Emerado1920251973
Carpio1920231967
Rolla1420241969
Denbigh1420251968
Douglas Crk1320251982
Bowesmont1220141968
Edgeley1120251980
Tobacco1020191968
Turtle Mtns1020251980
Kempton920171967
Bentley920231988
Powers Lake920251980
Sydney819831967
Lake George820231967
Gorham820251968
Roosevelt Pk820191982
Danzig 2820252019
Forman720251969
Wild Rose720251982

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.