BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Dakota is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in North Dakota is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.2–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025126.917
2026127.017
2027127.117
2028127.217
2029127.217

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording American Goldfinch in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emerado3520241973
Loraine2720191982
Abercrombie2220121967
Carpio1920231967
Cooperstown1620241969
Edgeley1520241980
Buchanan1420241967
Rolla1420241969
Regan1320221968
Turtle Mtns1320241980
Bowesmont1220141968
Stanley1220241967
Glen Ullin1220221987
Wild Rose1120241982
Tobacco1020191968
Kempton920171967
Dunn Center920241968
Bentley920231988
Sydney819831967
Dickinson820241968
Roosevelt Pk820191982
Powers Lake820241980
Douglas Crk820241982
Danzig 2820242019
Solen720242005

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.