BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in New Jersey has surged: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+249%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has surged in New Jersey: up 249% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New Jersey is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.814
2026118.014
2027118.114
2028118.214
2029118.415

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording American Goldfinch in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croton 24520242008
Croton3320071970
Kemah Lake3320241966
Toms River2220241966
Midvale2220221967
Clarksville1819911969
Dover1620231977
New Bedford1520241969
Woodbury Hgt1420241968
Sandbrook1420241969
High Point1420241977
Ramseysburg1320241995
Pedricktown 21120242013
Mt Misery1019881976
Spraguetown 2920072000
Albion820221966
Holmansville820091969
Bloomsbury820241969
Pedricktown820121992
Roosevelt720221986
Winslow720241989
Bennett Mill 2720242016
Pottersville620241977
Gillette620241988
Cape May Ch620131992

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.