BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Goldfinch has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.19–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±600.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±600.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.19–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±600.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.182.5
20261.30.192.5
20271.30.192.5
20281.30.192.5
20291.30.192.5

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording American Goldfinch in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Colcord820221992
Keetonville720141992
Ft Sill East619941994
Baron420221969
Holdenville320241967
Choctaw320151967
Welch320241967
Barnsdall319771968
Foraker320221993
Hunter320061992
Hee Mountain320241999
Big Cedar220151968
Mill Creek220041973
Beggs220221970
Collinsville220191967
Wakita219981967
Hardesty220131972
Bethel220241996
Pocola220151992
Cashion220221995
Jet220241994
Blanco120161967
Mcalester119811981
Phillips120051968
Loco119801969

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.