BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Goldfinch Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

American Goldfinch in New York has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in New York. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New York is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New York is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191226
2026191226
2027191226
2028191226
2029191226

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Goldfinch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Youngstown11820231966
Romulus7020001968
Churchville6220241968
Castile5920241967
Orleans5620241967
Mcdonough5520171967
Macdougall5520241969
Dryden5220241966
N Victory 25220211978
Naples4920241966
Cayuga4620241969
Alder Creek4420041968
Cicero Ctr4220241966
Mt Morris3920241967
Cooperstown3819771968
Randolph3520181967
Branchport3220241967
Hamburg3220241967
Watertown3220121967
Duanesburg3120241966
Canadice L3120241968
S Berne 23120242014
Nashville3020181967
Byron3020241967
Durham2819761966

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.