BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

American Goldfinch Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

American Goldfinch in New York has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-9%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Goldfinch Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for American Goldfinch in New York. See the full index history below.

American Goldfinch Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New York is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Goldfinch in New York is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 25 in 2025 to a central estimate of 19 (95% range 12–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191227
2027191226
2028191226
2029191226
2030191226

American Goldfinch Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Goldfinch in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Naples9920251966
Churchville9520251968
E Youngstown7420251966
Romulus7020001968
Macdougall6820251969
Mcdonough5520171967
N Victory 25220211978
Duanesburg4720251966
Alder Creek4420041968
Mt Morris4120251967
Cooperstown3819771968
Hamburg3820251967
Orleans3720251967
Harris Hill3620252005
Randolph3520181967
Cayuga3320251969
Penfield3320251968
Branchport3220241967
East Java3220251967
Watertown3220121967
Dryden3120251966
Corbettsvile3020251966
Nashville3020181967
Phillips Cr2920251967
Canadice L2920251968

American Goldfinch Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.